Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22 2020 | 7182 | 36736 | 215 | 54 | 1707 | 2146 |
| November 23 2020 | 7250 | 36863 | 218 | 54 | 1708 | 2119 |
| November 24 2020 | 7336 | 37074 | 231 | 56 | 1710 | 2113 |
| November 25 2020 | 7479 | 37323 | 237 | 56 | 1614 | 2187 |
| November 26 2020 | 7563 | 37502 | 239 | 57 | 1414 | 2088 |
| November 27 2020 | 7563 | 37665 | 241 | 57 | 1312 | 2021 |
| November 28 2020 | 7661 | 37844 | 243 | 57 | 1059 | 2035 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.3 | 4.3% | 46 | 0.4% | 85 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 10.4 | 13.6% | 144 | 1.06% | 261 | 1.92% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 20.7 | 24.5% | 259 | 1.24% | 488 | 2.33% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 13.0 | 17% | 180 | 1.32% | 347 | 2.55% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 10.7 | 11.2% | 119 | 1.14% | 260 | 2.48% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 11.1 | 12.3% | 130 | 1.04% | 250 | 1.99% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 8.0 | 9.8% | 104 | 0.9% | 199 | 1.73% |
| 70+ | 9 | 6.4 | 7.3% | 77 | 0.74% | 145 | 1.39% |
| All ages | 98 | 83.7 | 100% | 1059 | 1.01% | 2035 | 1.94% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22 2020 | 4255 | 22428 | 117 | 45 | 1032 | 1502 |
| November 23 2020 | 4304 | 22492 | 117 | 45 | 946 | 1504 |
| November 24 2020 | 4376 | 22581 | 120 | 47 | 938 | 1392 |
| November 25 2020 | 4455 | 22690 | 123 | 48 | 944 | 1369 |
| November 26 2020 | 4530 | 22766 | 125 | 49 | 950 | 1307 |
| November 27 2020 | 4531 | 22828 | 126 | 50 | 838 | 1173 |
| November 28 2020 | 4535 | 22892 | 127 | 50 | 738 | 1097 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.3 | 3.1% | 23 | 0.3% | 35 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.4 | 7.3% | 54 | 0.64% | 84 | 1% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 8.0 | 15.4% | 114 | 1.6% | 168 | 2.36% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 8.1 | 20.2% | 149 | 1.77% | 197 | 2.34% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 9.9 | 18.2% | 134 | 1.73% | 184 | 2.37% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 7.4 | 15.7% | 116 | 1.2% | 182 | 1.88% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 5.1 | 9.5% | 70 | 0.83% | 134 | 1.59% |
| 70+ | 0 | 6.1 | 10.6% | 78 | 1.1% | 113 | 1.59% |
| All ages | 4 | 51.4 | 100% | 738 | 1.14% | 1097 | 1.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22 2020 | 3250 | 14829 | 117 | 37 | 1122 | 1389 |
| November 23 2020 | 3307 | 14847 | 117 | 37 | 1123 | 1388 |
| November 24 2020 | 3345 | 14879 | 122 | 38 | 948 | 1354 |
| November 25 2020 | 3407 | 14958 | 125 | 39 | 766 | 1354 |
| November 26 2020 | 3465 | 15055 | 128 | 41 | 744 | 1337 |
| November 27 2020 | 3465 | 15195 | 128 | 41 | 711 | 1281 |
| November 28 2020 | 3558 | 15226 | 136 | 41 | 676 | 1161 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.7 | 4.9% | 33 | 0.61% | 50 | 0.92% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 3.9 | 8.7% | 59 | 1.09% | 104 | 1.92% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 6.1 | 12.7% | 86 | 1.9% | 155 | 3.43% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 7.1 | 16.1% | 109 | 2.01% | 182 | 3.35% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 6.6 | 13.5% | 91 | 1.83% | 173 | 3.48% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 8.4 | 17.9% | 121 | 1.78% | 188 | 2.77% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 5.6 | 11.7% | 79 | 1.25% | 152 | 2.4% |
| 70+ | 19 | 9.0 | 14.5% | 98 | 1.55% | 157 | 2.48% |
| All ages | 93 | 49.4 | 100% | 676 | 1.49% | 1161 | 2.57% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22 2020 | 7340 | 39279 | 139 | 32 | 1322 | 1871 |
| November 23 2020 | 7401 | 39430 | 142 | 32 | 1217 | 1866 |
| November 24 2020 | 7500 | 39690 | 151 | 33 | 1274 | 1874 |
| November 25 2020 | 7651 | 39989 | 155 | 34 | 1366 | 1818 |
| November 26 2020 | 7761 | 40101 | 157 | 34 | 1312 | 1743 |
| November 27 2020 | 7813 | 40286 | 157 | 35 | 1172 | 1629 |
| November 28 2020 | 7906 | 40422 | 158 | 35 | 1061 | 1680 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.9 | 3.8% | 40 | 0.34% | 59 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 9.0 | 9.1% | 97 | 0.59% | 152 | 0.92% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 18.7 | 19.9% | 211 | 0.99% | 344 | 1.62% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 13.4 | 16.2% | 172 | 1.27% | 295 | 2.17% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 11.0 | 13% | 138 | 1.01% | 211 | 1.55% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 11.1 | 13.9% | 147 | 1.04% | 240 | 1.69% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 10.6 | 12.5% | 133 | 0.94% | 199 | 1.4% |
| 70+ | 11 | 10.7 | 11.6% | 123 | 0.95% | 180 | 1.38% |
| All ages | 93 | 88.4 | 100% | 1061 | 0.9% | 1680 | 1.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22 2020 | 24866 | 268134 | 729 | 75 | 4276 | 6343 |
| November 23 2020 | 25006 | 269472 | 733 | 75 | 3951 | 6209 |
| November 24 2020 | 25755 | 270881 | 742 | 77 | 4407 | 6261 |
| November 25 2020 | 25990 | 271803 | 744 | 77 | 4270 | 6034 |
| November 26 2020 | 26367 | 272956 | 749 | 80 | 4144 | 5777 |
| November 27 2020 | 26412 | 273981 | 757 | 80 | 3482 | 5357 |
| November 28 2020 | 26843 | 274307 | 775 | 80 | 3369 | 5495 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 27 | 17.1 | 5.7% | 191 | 0.32% | 297 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 51 | 49.1 | 16.4% | 551 | 0.78% | 929 | 1.31% |
| 20-29 | 113 | 72.0 | 23% | 775 | 0.75% | 1270 | 1.22% |
| 30-39 | 60 | 51.7 | 17% | 574 | 0.75% | 911 | 1.19% |
| 40-49 | 54 | 45.7 | 13.9% | 468 | 0.71% | 756 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 46 | 31.6 | 10.2% | 345 | 0.53% | 591 | 0.9% |
| 60-69 | 35 | 24.9 | 7.6% | 257 | 0.47% | 417 | 0.76% |
| 70+ | 45 | 20.6 | 6.2% | 208 | 0.42% | 324 | 0.66% |
| All ages | 431 | 312.7 | 100% | 3369 | 0.62% | 5495 | 1.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22 2020 | 354676 | 2085252 | 15823 | 3005 | 61288 | 87266 |
| November 23 2020 | 357771 | 2094448 | 15930 | 3011 | 56606 | 86001 |
| November 24 2020 | 363973 | 2104756 | 16209 | 3115 | 57662 | 85130 |
| November 25 2020 | 369442 | 2116549 | 16457 | 3178 | 57073 | 83551 |
| November 26 2020 | 374537 | 2125202 | 16658 | 3240 | 57779 | 81149 |
| November 27 2020 | 375837 | 2133700 | 16715 | 3257 | 51989 | 74672 |
| November 28 2020 | 380870 | 2138110 | 16882 | 3285 | 49033 | 74559 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 283 | 195.4 | 4.4% | 2173 | 0.34% | 3230 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 592 | 469.0 | 11.1% | 5434 | 0.72% | 8237 | 1.09% |
| 20-29 | 855 | 739.4 | 17% | 8357 | 1.1% | 12694 | 1.68% |
| 30-39 | 697 | 643.0 | 15.6% | 7657 | 1.01% | 11701 | 1.55% |
| 40-49 | 702 | 614.6 | 14.6% | 7171 | 1.03% | 10921 | 1.56% |
| 50-59 | 688 | 625.7 | 15.2% | 7452 | 0.91% | 11524 | 1.41% |
| 60-69 | 573 | 484.6 | 11.4% | 5575 | 0.74% | 8498 | 1.12% |
| 70+ | 643 | 471.3 | 10.6% | 5215 | 0.81% | 7754 | 1.21% |
| All ages | 5033 | 4243.0 | 100% | 49033 | 0.84% | 74559 | 1.28% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 194.5 | 191.9 | 233.2 | 83.7 | 146.9 | 31.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169.7 | 51.4 | 101.3 | 39.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 256.6 | 49.4 | 109 | 41.4% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142.1 | 91.8 | 161.6 | 88.4 | 145 | 31.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.5 | 130.7 | 122.3 | 312.7 | 490.9 | 22.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128.1 | 108.8 | 167.7 | 4243 | 6429.3 | 31.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 5.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.5 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-19 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3131"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges