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Important dates:

• (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

• First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
• Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

• 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
• 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
• 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
• daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
• posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk	Criteria 2wk20s	Criteria daily7	Suggestion
> 25	> 30	–	urge extra caution
> 28	> 45*	decreasing	consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28	> 45*	steady to increasing	strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30	> 50	decreasing	’’ ’’ ’’
> 30	> 50	steady to increasing	based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

• WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
  • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000

[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 5.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.5 power."

[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-19 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3131"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

• Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
• Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
• Dane county (Madison): green
• La Crosse county (La Crosse): red